By Phil Royle – Jan. 25, 2022

Not long ago, EVs were shrugged off as toys, with even the most ardent of EV proponents unable to justify the general masses purchasing sub-100-mile EVs. With time came the first crop of serious, non-“compliance” EVs, with ranges of 200-250 miles, and along with them the buildout of Level 2 and Level 3 charging infrastructure. And now, the world sits on the brink of the next generation of EVs, some of which offer premium models pushing 300 miles of range or more. Still, many base-range EVs currently sit in that so-called 230-mile “sweet spot” that some claim to be more than adequate. The question becomes, is 230 actually the sweetest number for mass EV adoption?

Companies like Toyota and Mazda have recently made the case for lower-range EVs. The concept makes sense on many levels, especially when taking into consideration the world’s battery-mining resources as the we undergo the transition from ICE to EV. After all, fewer of Earth’s resources poured into the batteries of a single vehicle frees up batteries for another vehicle – why, as the argument goes, make just one car with 70 kWh worth of batteries when you can make two with 35 kWh of batteries each?

Justifying that argument are studies showing that people generally don’t drive very far, with some claiming the number to be as little as 30 miles per day. Mazda’s MX-30 EV can travel 100 miles via its 35.5 kWh battery – that’s more than enough, right?

But contrary to Toyota’s and Mazda’s assertion that smaller batteries offer ample range, there’s a legitimate argument to be made that 300-mile EVs should be the absolute minimum, and here’s why.

Red Herrings, Statistics, and Assumptions
First and foremost, the idea that most people only drive 30 miles a day is a red herring. While it’s likely true that 90% of your driving needs would be met by a 100-mile EV, it’s that last 10% that leaves you stranded. Mazda’s current solution is to offer 10 days of free ICE car rental for three years with the purchase or lease of its 100-mile-range MX-30. But when ICE is no more, will Mazda package free long-range EV rental with the MX-30?

There’s a solid argument for owning an affordable “city” EV for local trips and then purchasing a more expensive longer-range EV that the entire family could fit in for traveling longer distances. But even in that scenario, range for the family car is critical. I’ll get to that later.

Mazda contends that its 100-mile MX-30 EV serves a very important purpose. And while the company’s arguments have merit, there’s more to the story. (Image courtesy Mazda)

Let’s get to the point: While America reportedly has eight parking spaces per car, the U.S. government reports that 37% of drivers don’t have access to off-street parking, which means in an all-EV world, roughly two out of every five vehicle owners will solely rely on public charging. There’s also an argument to be made that the number is even higher than 37%, as many apartment complexes offer off-street parking but do not – and likely never will – give tenants EV charging capabilities.

For my example, I’m going to use the latest crop of modern EVs with a 230-mile range and the ability to DC fast charge at 150-350 kW as the baseline. I’m also going to assume that most of those two-out-of-five drivers with no off-street parking also don’t have regular access to a Level 2 charger for their day-to-day lives, and that those drivers will want to charge when their EVs hit 15% state of charge (both of which are reasonable assumptions, at least given today’s charging infrastructure, although there is a caveat with larger batteries that I’ll get to momentarily).

Level 3 charging is amazing. Vehicles with a claimed peak charging capability of 150 kW can run from 10% or 20% empty to an 80% state of charge in 30-45 minutes. Hyundai Group’s 350 kW E-GMP-based vehicles will hit 80% in under 20 minutes. However, charging from 80% to 100% could take 30 minutes or an hour even on a 350 kW charger, as the charging rate diminishes rapidly once a battery reaches 80% of its capacity. By and large, most people solely relying on Level 3 chargers simply aren’t going to wait for that last 20% of the juice.

Regardless of the peak charging capabilities, once a battery hits 80% state of charge, the road to 100% is a slow one. (Image by Phil Royle)

Here Comes the Math
For those relying on Level 3 chargers with a 230-mile capable EV, their actual day-to-day range doesn’t start at 230 miles, it begins at 80% of that, which is 184 miles (few are likely to spend the time charging to 100% unless they’re prepping for a longer trip). Then, keep in mind that you need to charge before running out of power, and that 15% of range remaining is likely the point that people will begin to feel uncomfortable (at least, until DC fast chargers are as ubiquitous as gas stations).

Using the 15% range-remaining number as a rough guide, that means the actual range for someone with an EV sporting a claimed 230-mile range who has no home charging and solely relies on DC fast chargers – likely 37%+ of America – is about 150 miles.

A 300-mile EV offers 240 miles of range at an 80% state of charge, leaving a usable range of about 200 miles before finding another DC fast charger.

To hit ICE distance equivalency for those with no home charging, they’d likely need an EV with 500 miles of range, which at 80% state of charge works out to be 400 miles, which roughly means 325 miles are usable before hitting 15% of the vehicle’s range remaining. (Here’s a caveat: This number would be closer to 350 usable miles because the 15% state-of-charge rule for a 500-mile EV leaves far more leeway than it does on an EV capable of traveling 230 miles. But for this article, I’ll stick to 15%.)

And how does that 100-mile EV fare with no home charging? At 80% charge, it can travel 80 miles. Subtract the bottom 15% of range and you’re actually driving a vehicle capable of 65 miles before charging.

Yes, all of these vehicles achieve well more than 30 miles, but the point is, rated range isn’t always what it seems when home charging isn’t an option.

Road Trip
Remember that multi-EV family I referred to earlier, where they have a 100-mile EV for around town and a long-range EV they share for family trips? This family likely has home charging, but for out-of-town vacations (the remaining 10% use case in the argument that short-range EVs work for 90% of your needs), they will heavily lean on Level 3 charging in their long-range EV, only bumping above 80% state of charge at night using destination chargers.

A base model Lucid Air boasts 406 miles of range. But on a road trip, mid-day charging will likely only give you 80% of that. (Image courtesy Lucid Motors)

On a family road trip, a 400-mile EV starting at 100% would allow them to travel 620 miles per day with one charging stop (drive 340 miles, charge to 80%, then travel 280 miles), while a 230-mile EV under the same circumstances would require three stops (drive 196 miles, charge to 80%, then drive 160 miles, charge to 80%, then drive another 160 miles, then charge again for the last leg).

An EV with a 300-mile range starting at 100% would travel 255 miles, charge to 80%, travel 210 miles, then charge again for the remaining stint – and if all went well, those stops would coincide with meals.

This is, of course, assuming perfect driving and charging conditions.

What’s the Ideal EV Range?
Everything I’ve laid out is based on today’s technology. However, mass EV adoption isn’t tomorrow – it’s a decade or two down the road for most of America. On top of that, battery technology (and thus range) is constantly improving, EV prices are dropping, and charging rates and vehicle efficiencies are all but the next horsepower war. And considering the CCS standard is cable of 500 kW charging, ICE-to-EV fueling parity might be a real thing by the time America hits 40-50% EV adoption.

Should every corner “gas” station boast six 500 kW chargers with most new EVs being capable of supporting 350+ kW of juice, the equation has massively shifted. But unless battery technology allows for a DC fast charge all the way to 100% with no appreciable dip in the charging curve, 37% of America still needs the highest mile range EVs they can get because, for them, any EPA-rated range is instantly cut by 20%. Likewise, family road trips require massive EV range for a pleasant experience.

Hyundai Group’s E-GMP EV platform offers U.S. models with ranges varying from 256 miles to 326. If you’re part of the 37% of America without off-street parking, you’ll likely need the largest battery possible. (Image courtesy Hyundai)

While I applaud EV makers for the modern crop of genuinely high-quality 230-mile range EVs, I believe the industry has a way to go. While manufacturers can still produce niche 100-mile EVs, for electric vehicles to win over the masses today, EV makers need to stop leaning on the “short commute” excuse and instead treat those two-out-of-five U.S. residents and remaining 10% use cases like they are the only use cases, offering 300-mile range EVs as the absolute minimum.

(Main image by Phil Royle)

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